Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Timing is Everything – A Few Thoughts on President’s Bush’s 5-15-06 Speech
Comments are flying from all quarters about the President’s speech last night. Some polling data shows the speech was well received, but the anecdotal evidence, especially on the Right, is not so positive. What did I think?
I have already stated in other postings my views on the issue of legal and illegal immigration.
http://www.rovingtheologian.com/index.php/weblog/comments/some_thoughts_on_immigration_rally_denver_co_may_1_2006/
http://www.rovingtheologian.com/index.php/weblog/more/one_theologians_take_on_immigration/
I am close to the position of the President, but less positive on the issue of how to handle existing illegal immigrants.
The real issue in regards to this speech though is that the President has very bad timing. There is an old saying that in politics timing is everything. Perhaps no President better captures that reality than President Bush. The “Mission Accomplished” speech on the aircraft carrier deck? Very bad timing (the insurgency was just picking up steam). The allowing of the drunk driving story to come out three days before the 2000 election? If he tells us all about that in March 2000 or even June, no problem and he likely wins the popular vote as well as the electral college by a larger margin. Telling Americans in the days after 9/11 to “go out and shop” seemed crass and silly, and missed the chance to challenge Americans to sacrifice for the cause of defeating global terrorism.
What Mr. Bush said last night, coming on the heels of months and months of ignoring the concerns of average Americans on the issue was the classic case of “too little too late.” Not that he suggestions are not good ideas and may help the problem. But the President has lost the trust of the American people on the issue. To regain that trust, he has to do a lot more than what he was suggesting last night. Had that speech been done in October of 2005 or even in December, it may well have said to Americans, “Hey, I am with you, and here are some thing we can do right away to help the problem.” But coming after months of telling some Americans their opposition to illegal immigration is racists, after months of making inane comments like “Jobs American’s Won’t Do” and “Family Values doesn’t stop at the Rio Grande” makes last night speech look like political pandering, like an effort to control the politics of illegal immigration and not the issue of illegal immigration. The only way last night’s speech works in the current timing if it started with the statement, “I have been wrong on this issue, I have not understood the concerns of many Americans, and I am apologize for being slow on the uptake and here are the steps I am suggesting right not to bring about change.” That is the only way the same suggestions made last night would have been well-received.
Saying timing is everything is not just a truism, its true. In 1862 President Lincoln almost released the Emancipation Proclamation on the eve of McClellen’s disastrous Battle of the Seven Days. Fortunately, he had the wise Secretary of State William Seward there to say, “I approve of the proclamation, but I question the expediency of its issue at this juncture. The depression in the public mind, consequent upon our repeated reverses, is so great that I fear the effect of so important a step. It may be viewed as the last measure of an exhausted government, a cry for help; the government stretching forth its hands to Ethiopia, instead of Ethiopia stretching forth her hands to the government. It will be considered the last shriek on the retreat.”
Seward was right…the Proclamation was held until the semi-victory at Antitiem gave the proper spirit in the nation for its receipt. Likewise, had F.D.R. waited until some point after his first 100 days to declare a bank holiday (a measure that was less about a particular need and more about a fresh start), it may well have been viewed as an act of desperation and an admittance of his policy failures. Yet another example is the necessity of Washington’s victory at Trenton on December 26, 1776 gave the needed victory to sustain the American Army and government through the brutal winter that followed.
Timing is not of course everything. Substance is needed as well. But let us be honest, substance at the wrong time often leads to defeat, disillusionment, and despair. If I described President Bush’s major problem it is his utter inability to “understand the times.” Waiting til 12 million illegal immigrants are in the nation to do anything…bad timing. Waiting until you have signed legislation that has increased federal spending beyond even a Democrat’s wildest dreams before you threaten to veto an appropriations bill…bad timing. Waiting for months after the intelligence failures of 9/11 and Iraq to change heads of the CIA…bad timing.
I genuinely respect and like President Bush, and voted for him in 2004. But the man is either the slowest to understand what is happening in the country (which was so much his father’s problem) or he is simply cursed by the worst sense of timing since…well, I can’t think of anyone worse.
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